Tag: volume

  • How Volume Confirms a Real Breakout in Stocks

    How Volume Confirms a Real Breakout in Stocks

    1. What Does a Breakout Mean?
    A breakout occurs when a stock crosses above a key resistance level. A resistance level is a price point where the stock repeatedly struggled to go higher. When the stock finally breaks through it, it suggests that buying pressure has increased.

    Example:
    If a stock was repeatedly getting rejected near ₹200, and today it closes above ₹200 with strong volume, it’s considered a breakout.

    2. Why Is a Breakout with High Volume Significant?
    Volume indicates how many shares are being traded.
    When a breakout happens with high volume, it means the breakout is likely genuine, not a false move.
    High volume shows that big players or institutions are also participating.

    This adds conviction to the move, and suggests that prices could go even higher.

    3. Why Is This Considered a Positive Signal?
    When a breakout occurs with a technical pattern (like a flag, cup & handle, or ascending triangle), and is confirmed by volume, it is seen as a bullish signal.
    Traders see it as a buying opportunity.
    Investors consider it an indication of a possible short- or medium-term rally.

    4. What Should You Do If You Spot This Signal?
    If a stock is breaking out:

    First, identify key support and resistance levels.
    Check if the breakout is confirmed on a closing basis.
    See if volume is 1.5x to 2x higher than the average.
    Always define a stop-loss — typically just below the breakout level.

    Final Summary in One Line:
    “When a stock breaks above strong resistance with high volume, it’s a powerful bullish signal that can lead to a short-term rally.”

    Stock Analysis

  • Narayana Hrudayalaya Stock Analysis: High Volume Breakout and Historical Comparison

    Narayana Hrudayalaya Stock Analysis: High Volume Breakout and Historical Comparison

    Narayana Hrudayalaya’s stock witnessed a significant movement last week, recording the highest volume in 8 years. Such high volume levels were last seen in 2016.

    Mutual Fund Holding

    Price Action & Volume Analysis:
    The candle formed last week had a record-breaking volume, but a large wick was observed at the top. This suggests that the price was rising, but aggressive selling by sellers put pressure on buyers.

    Chart

    A similar situation occurred in 2016, which was followed by a major correction. If history repeats itself, short-term selling pressure could be expected.

    This serves as a reminder that analyzing historical data on charts is crucial to understanding how similar price actions have played out in the past.

    Fundamental Performance:
    The company has been consistently growing its revenue while effectively controlling its expenses.

    Despite inflation, the company has managed to keep its expenses in check, which is a strong indicator of efficient cost management.

    In March 2013, the company’s operating margin was just 8%, which has now increased to 23% as of March 2024, reflecting improved efficiency and profitability.

    The company is investing in capital expenditure (capex), which is a positive sign for business expansion and future growth.

    Expansion

    Payment Cycle:
    The company has improved its Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) –
    In March 2013, cash collection took 40 days, which has now reduced to 31 days.

    Ratios

    On the other hand, Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) has increased from 121 days to 205 days, meaning the company is able to delay payments to suppliers, showcasing better working capital management.

    Shareholding Pattern & Float:
    Public holding stands at 17.39%, with 1,77,792 shareholders, making it a high-float stock. A high float means the stock has good liquidity, but the downside is that price movements can be slow or unpredictable due to actions by large players.

    Shareholding Pattern

    Conclusion:
    Fundamentally, the company is performing strongly. However, from a technical perspective, last week’s price action and volume, when compared to historical data, could serve as a warning sign. If price behavior similar to 2016 repeats, there could be short-term downside risk. In such cases, it would be wise to analyze both historical price action and fundamentals before making a decision.

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