Tag: swing trading

  • How to Identify Swing Highs and Swing Lows

    How to Identify Swing Highs and Swing Lows

     

    I always pay strict attention to price formations when evaluating any market. Swing highs and lows are two of the most important formations to learn to identify.
    Many traders use these areas as entry areas on pullbacks when trading with the trend. Because their orders will be there as a ‘buffer’ to slow the counter-trend rise or fall of price, I often hide my orders above swing highs and below swing lows.

    But many traders, especially those just learning to read charts, have trouble understanding just what it takes to make a particular high a ‘swing high’ or a particular low a ‘swing low’.

    The chart shows a more common method of charting swing highs and lows. 

    Looking at this chart, I have already marked a Swing High “A” and a Swing Low “B”. And note that price has now climbed above the price extreme labeled Swing High “A”. Does that make this new high in price a swing high? No, because I don’t yet know whether the new high is in place or if the price will continue to work its way higher.

    In the back of my mind, I should be thinking that price is ‘working’ on a new swing high. But it is not a swing high until a price formation confirms it as an extreme high. It’s not as confusing as it sounds. Let me try to show a better example of extremes that are not yet confirmed by price formation extremes:

    Looking at this chart, I see a series of lower lows and lower highs that came after prices made an extreme high. But note that price has not yet traded below the prior low [at the far left of this chart].

    Nothing yet says to me: “The extreme low is in for this swing!” That means a true swing low has not been put in yet. Let’s look at another example:

    At first glance, it looks as if price left an extreme high and then traded lower and most traders would be tempted to say a swing high had just occurred.

    But is it a swing high? In this case, price made a new high and then came down and is now re-testing the prior low—In fact, at the moment the last bar is part of “double bottoms”, which is an important price formation but cannot be used to confirm a swing high or low. Only a low lower than Swing Low ‘A’ can ‘confirm’ the high that price made two bars earlier as a true swing high.

    Price breaks below the double bottoms and the low of Swing Low ‘A’ and that confirms the high three bars earlier as Swing High ‘B’.

    It takes new lows to confirm Swing Highs and new highs to confirm Swing Lows. Trading these back and forth motions in the market is swing trading. Once you learn to identify swing highs and swing lows, you can begin to anticipate what it will take to make the next price extreme a swing high or low and how to use that in your trading.

    Swing High ‘B’ is confirmed when price breaks below the prior low that formed Swing Low ‘A’ and note that price is now making a series of lower lows and lower highs. Has the price made a swing low yet? Remember, only a new swing high above a price extreme can confirm a swing low. There is nothing yet to even hint that price has made an extreme low.

    After the sharp fall, price consolidates, forming an Energy Coil [an area of tight congestion]. Energy Coils is generally a sign that price is re-storing energy, taking a break after an extreme move. Note that they are often followed by a series of false breakouts, so it can be dangerous to blindly buy or sell breakouts from these areas. Did the price just make a new swing low? Let’s take a closer look:

    I view the Energy Coil and the engulfing bar before it as a price formation. Now that price has climbed back above both the Energy Coil and the engulfing bar before it, the double bottoms below the Energy Coil are confirmed as Swing Low ‘B’.

    This is a classic bottoming formation, by the way, and unless price quickly ‘zooms’ through this area to the down side, this area should provide very good support. Note that we cannot identify a new swing high yet.

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • What is SWING TRADING

    What is SWING TRADING

    Swing trading is a short-term trading method that can be used when trading stocks & options. Whereas day trading positions last less than one day, swing trading position typically last two to six days, but may last as long as two week or month.

    Swing trading is a short-term strategy used by traders to buy & sell stocks whose technical indicator suggest an upward or downward trend in the near future generally one day or two weeks.

    Swing trading uses technical analysis to determine whether or not particular stocks will go up or down in the very hear term. By examining technical indicators, day traders look for stocks whose price movement have momentum signaling the best times to buy or sell. Swing traders are not concerned with the long-term value of a given stock.

     

    TWO KEYS OF SWING TRADING STRATEGIES

    1. OOPS

    2. MEAN REVERSION

     

    1. OOPS

    • Object Oriented Programming Strategy.
    • Simple OOPS trades developed by Larry Williams at least 30 years ago.

    RULES

    • SE TUP – Any opening gap, whether up or down offers a potential signal.
    1. LONG – On a gap down, place a buy – stop at yesterday’s low.
    2. SHORT – On a gap up, place a sell – stop at yesterday’s high.

    EXIT ON THE ‘FIRST PROFITABLE OPENING’ (FPO)

    1. FPO stop exit the trade the first time a position opens with a profit.
    2. Testing shows this consistently makes money by holding a position overnight.
    3. Exit on 20% stop loss.
    • The stop loss is below the low of the same day.

    ITS VERY EASY TO IDENTIFY OOPS PATTERN IN THE CHART:

    • OOPS BUY
    1. If you are watching daily charts, the first condition is that there has to be a SUSTAINED downtrend for a few trading sessions. I mean few RED CANDLES on daily charts.
    2. On the last day of downtrend, the OOPS buy occurs, there is a gap down, which open well below the previous day’s low.
    3. During the course of trading the stock rises & goes above the previous day’s low & also the previous day’s close.

    • OOPS SELL
    1. If you are watching daily charts, the first condition is that there has to be a SUSTAINED uptrend for a few trading sessions. I mean WHITE CANDLE on daily charts.
    2. On the last day of uptrend when the OOPS sell occurs, there is a gap up opening, which opens well above the previous day’s high.
    3. During the course of trading the stock corrects & goes below the previous day’s high, & also the pervious day,s close.

    2. MEAN REVERSION

    Mean reversion is a theory used in finance that suggests that assets price & historical returns eventually return back to the long run mean or average level of the entire data set. This mean or average can be the historical average of the price or return,or another relevant average such as the growth in the economy or the average return of an industry.
    The idea of mean reversion is rooted in a well known concept called regression to the mean.
    This is a theory first observed by statistician francis gallon.

    The two most popular types of trading strategies are momentum & mean reversion. A mean reversion trading strategy involves betting that prices will revert back toward the mean or average.

    When the market is moving sideways or consolidating, a particular asset might exhibit mean reversion in the short run & trend following strategies will not work.. prices & returns eventually move back to their mean or average stance this concept forms the basis of many successful strategies.

    How do we identify the underlying trend? That’s the essence of this strategy! Consider the dummy example below:

     

    We calculate the 90-day Moving Average(90d MA) of the stock price and treat that as the underlying stable trend. We also calculate the 30-day Moving Average(30d MA) and can see that it zig-zags around the 90d trend. Now we can build the following strategy:

    • When the value of 30d MA falls below 90d MA we expect it to revert back to the 90d line. That is, the current price is too low and likely to increase. Hence this is a signal to buy
    • Similarly, if the value of 30d MA rises above 90d MA we expect it to fall back to the 90d line. Hence the current price is too high and is a signal to sell

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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