“ A moving average is simply the average value of data over a specified time period, and it’s used to figure out whether the price of a stock or a commodity is trending up or down. Although simple to construct, moving averages are dynamic tools, because you can choose which data points and time periods to use to build them. For instance, you can choose to use the open, high, low, close or midpoint of a trading range and then study that moving average over a time period, ranging from tick data to monthly price data or longer.”
Moving Average (MA) is a stock indicator that is commonly used in technical analysis. Technical Analysis is more important than Fundamental Analysis. Moving Average is one of the most popular techniques. moving averages that are used in timing a financial market. These averages are employed to detect the direction of the stock price trend and identify turning points in the trend in real time.
Moving Average smooth the price data to form a trend- following Indicator. They do not predict price direction, but rather define the current direction with a lag. Moving Average is primarily the summary of momentum & trend. Moving average reduces the noise in the price and also helps to follow trends.
Popular Time Period Of Moving Average:
10 Period MA
20 Period MA
50 Period MA
200 Period MA
Moving Average COMBINATION:
This is the main calculation
Sr.No.
DAILY
WEEKLY
1
10 SMA
2 SMA
2
50 SMA
10 SMA
3
100 SMA
20 SMA
4
200 SAM
MOVING AVERAGE SETUP FOR:
DAILY INCOME TRADING (DIT)
I put 10 EMA, 21/20 SMA & 50 SMA on the daily chart.
If 10 below 20/21 below 50 I consider that stock is trading in the down trend & I focus on short trades.
If 50 below 20/21 below 10 I consider that stock is trading in the up trend & I focus on long traders.
Apply your strategy & take your trade accordingly.
TYPES OF MOVING AVERAGE:
The most popular type of moving averages are Simple moving average & Exponential moving average. These moving average uses for identifying the trend of the market.
a. SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE
SMA is the easiest moving average to construct. The Simple Moving Average (SMA) is calculated by adding the price of an instrument over a number of time periods and then dividing the sum by the number of time periods. The SMA is basically the average price of the given time period, with equal weighting given to the price of each period. Most moving averages are based on closing prices
CALCULATING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE
Ifyou plotted a 5 period simple moving average on 1hour chart, you would add up the closing prices for the last 5 hours, then divide that number by 5.
Example:
A 5-day simple moving average is calculated by adding the closing prices for the last 5 days and dividing the total by 5. 10+ 11 + 12 + 13 + 14 = 60 (60 / 5) = 12
b. Exponential moving average
Exponential Moving Average can be specified in two ways- as a percent based EMA or as a period based EMA. A percent based EMA has a percentage as its single parameter. A period based EMA has parameters that represent the duration of the EMA.
CALCULATING EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE
EMA = K * (Current Price – Previous EMA) + Previous EMA
Candlestick is the most popular & most usable chart in trading. Even most of the successful traders also advise to use this charts for trade. Candlestick chart is invented by MUNEHISA HOMMA.
This charts were developed in the 18th century by Munehisa Homma, a Japanese rice trader. He is considered as the father of the candlestick chart. He is one of the most successful trader in History. The Candlestick trading Bible is one of the most powerful trading systems in history. This trading system is based on Japanese candlestick patterns in combination with technical analysis. Learning Japanese candlestick is like learning a new language. We have to understand the psychology behind the candle formation, understand the candle pattern & most important thing is to understand the trends.
CANDLESTICKS BODY
Candlesticks have different colors and body size.
The most trading platforms were using White & Black color refers to Bullish & Bearish candlestick charts.But, at present it has been upgraded with colorful charts where white candle is denoted by Green Color & Black candle is denoted by Red color.Filled part of the candlestick is called the Real Body. Thin lines poking above & below the body are called Shadows/Tail.
If the candle closes above the open price, it indicates the market forms a bullish candlestick. Bullish candles always display as Green color.And if the candle closes below the open price, it indicates the market forms a bearish candlestick. Bearish candles always display as Red color.
But the color doesn’t matters, you can use whatever color you want.
Long v/s Short
Long bodies of candles shows strong buying & selling pressure. Bullish long candle indicates that buyers are more stronger than sellers and they are taking control of the market during this period of time. Conversely, a bearish long candle indicates that sellers are stronger than buyers & they are taking control of the market during this period of time.
Short & small bodies indicate a little buying & selling activity.Upper & lower shadows give us important information about the trading session. Candlestick with long shadows show that trading action occurred well past the open & close. Japanese candlesticks with short shadows indicates that most of the trading actions are confined near the open & close.
If a candlestick has a longer upper shadow, and short lower shadow, this means that buyers flexed their muscles and bid price higher. But for one reason or another, sellers comes in and drove the price back down to end the session back near its open price.
If a Japanese candlestick has a long lower shadow and short upper shadow, this means that sellers flashed their washboard abs and forced the price lower. But for one reason or another a buyer comes in and drove prices back up to end the session back near its open price.
CANDLESTICK PATTERNS
Candlestick patterns are one of the most powerful trading concepts, they are simple, easy to identify, & very profitable setups. Candlestick patterns are the language of the market. Here are some of the candlestick patterns that will help us in the market:
1. THE DOJI CANDLESTICK PATTERN
Doji is the most important Japanese Candlestick Pattern. When this candlestick forms, it tells us that the market Opens & Close at the same price which means that there is equality & indecision between buyers & sellers there is no one in control of the market. If the closing & opening prices are same, that means candle is giving us a single, that market is not able to decide which direction to take. The above chart shows how the market has changed the direction after the formation of the Doji candle pattern. If Doji forms in uptrend it gives a signal, that the buyers are failing to keep the price up & sellers are pushing the price back to the opening price. When Doji form in downtrend that indicates the market is ready to go up side & it gives a reversal signal.
2.THE DRAGONFLY DOJI PATTERN
Dragonfly Doji is a Bullish candlestick Pattern. Dragonfly Doji is formed when the open, high & close are the same & it has no upper shadow. An important identification of dragonfly doji is its long lower shadow. Indecision & trend reversal are indicators of the dragonfly Doji. The long lower tail suggests that the force of supply & demand are nearing a balance & that the direction of the trend may be nearing a major turning point.
The above chart shows how the downtrend market changes the direction of the market toward uptrend. The formation of dragonfly Doji with long lower tails shows us that there is a high buying pressure in the area. The war between Bull & Bear, attempted by the bear towards pushing price down, but here buyers are stronger than sellers.
3.THE GRAVESTONE DOJI
The gravestone doji is the Bearish version of the dragonfly doji. It is a bearish reversal candlestick which mostly occurs at the top of uptrends. The formation of the long upper tail is an indication that the market is testing a powerful supply or resistance area.
The image above is a perfect gravestone Doji. This pattern indicates that while buyers were able to push prices well above the open. Later in the day, sellers overwhelmed the market pushing the price back down. This is interpreted as a sign that bulls are losing their momentum and the market is ready for a reversal.
4.THE BEARISH ENGULFING BAR CANDLESTICK PATTERN
The bearish engulfing is one of the most important candlestick patterns. Engulfing bar is formed when it fully engulfs the previous candle.
The first candlestick shows that the bulls were in charge of the market, while the second shows that bearish pressure pushed the market price lower. The second period will open higher than the previous day but finish significantly lower.
The engulfing bar can engulf more than one previous candle, but to be considered an engulfing bar, at least one candle must be fully consumed. When this pattern occurs at the end of an Uptrend, this indicates that buyers are engulfed by sellers which signals a trend Reversal.
The pattern is also a sign for those in a long position to consider closing their trade.
5.THE BULLISH ENGULFING BAR PATTERN
A bullish engulfing pattern is the opposite of a bearish engulfing pattern. Many traders use this candlestick pattern to identify price reversals and continuations to support their trading strategies.
The bullish engulfing bar consists of two candlesticks, the first one is the small body, & the second is the engulfing candle. When a bullish engulfing candle forms at the end of downtrend the reversal is much more powerful as it represents a capitulation bottom. The color of the body is not important, what’s important is that the smaller one is totally engulfed by the second candlestick.
6.MORNING STAR CANDLESTICK
The Morning Star Pattern is considered as a BULLISH REVERSAL PATTERN. A morning star candlestick pattern can successfully predict or explain trends in price movements in the case of equity, currency trading or financial derivatives. This pattern occurs at the bottom of Downtrend near a support level, it is interpreted as a powerful trend Reversal Signal. The first candlestick is bearish. The second candle is small & this can be Bullish Or bearish. Second one produces indecision in the market, second candle could be a DOJI or any other CANDLE. The Third candle is a bullish candlestick that gapped up on the open & closed above midpoint of the body of the first day, this candlestick holds a significant trend reversal signal.
7.THE EVENING STAR PATTERN
The Evening Star Pattern is the opposite of the Morning star pattern. The evening star pattern is considered as a Bearish Reversal Pattern. This pattern occurs at the top of an Uptrend. The First candle is a Bullish candle. The second candle is a small candlestick, it can be bullish or bearish or it can be a DOJI or any other Candles. The third candle is a large bearish candle. In general the evening star pattern is the bearish version of the morning star pattern. Third candlestick gaping lower than the previous candlestick indicating a confirmation of the reversal & the beginning of new trend down.
8.HAMMER (BIN BAR)
The hammer is a reversal candlestick pattern when it occurs at the bottom of a Downtrend. Long lower shadow that indicates a bullish rejection from buyers & their intention to push the market.
Understand the psychology behind the formation of patterns , here sellers forcefully push the price down but that time of period buyers are more powerful than sellers which result in trend reversal.
9.SHOOTING STAR (BEARISH PIN BAR)
Shooting star is the Bearish version of the hammer. This candle is characterized by a small body. And long upper shadow. Shadow should be twice the length of the real body. This pattern occurs in an uptrend. It indicates a bearish reversal pattern.
It is one of the most powerful signals.
10.HARAMI PATTERN ( INSIDE BAR)
Harami pattern (Pregnant In Japanese) is considered as a Reversal & Continuation pattern, & it consists of two candlesticks. The first candle is the large candle, it is called the mother candle, followed by a smaller candle which is called the baby. Harami pattern to be valid, the second candle should close outside the previous one. This candlestick is considered as a Bearish Reversal Signal when it occurs at the top of an uptrend, and it is Bullish Signal when it occurs at the bottom of a Downtrend. Smaller body is totally covered by the previous mother candle. Don’t bother yourself with colors, the most important is that the smaller body closes inside of the first bigger.
11.TWEEZERS TOPS & BOTTOMS
The tweezers top formation is considered as a Bearish Reversal Pattern seen at the top of an Uptrend. The tweezers bottom formation is interpreted as a Bullish Reversal Pattern seen at the bottom of a Downtrend. The first one is a bullish candlestick followed by a bearish candlestick. And the tweezer bottom formation consists of two candlesticks as well. The tweezer bottom happens during a Downtrend.
Note:
The candlestick pattern is more workable in higher time frame (weekly, daily & 4hr.) compare to lower time frame. When candlestick pattern is form in the chart, than wait for confirmation & follow up.
“A stock is a general term used to describe the ownership certificates of any company. A share, on the other hand reffers to the stock certificate of particular company . Holding a particular company’s share makes you a shareholder.”
The stock (also capital stock) of a corporation is all of the shares into which ownership of the corporation is divided. In American English, the shares are company known as “stocks”.
A stock is an investment. When you purchase a company’s stock, you’re purchasing a small piece of that company called a share.
A stock is a type of investment that represents an ownership share in a company. Investors buy stocks that they think will go up in value over time.
A share of company held by an individual or group. Corporations raise capital by issuing stocks & entitle the stock owners (shareholders) to partial ownership of the corporation. Stocks are bought & sold on what is called an Exchange. There are several types of stocks & the two most typical forms are preferred stock & common stock.
Owning a stock gives you certain rights & those rights can differ depending on the types of stock you own.
There are two main types of stock:
COMMON STOCK
PREFERRED STOCK
1. COMMON STOCK:
Common stock is a form of corporate equity ownership. It being primarily used in the united states. They are known as equity shares or ordinary shares in the UK.Common stock comes with voting rights; as well as the possibility of dividends & capital appreciation. Each share of common stock represents a share of ownership in a company. If a company does well or the value of its assets increases, common stock can go up in value. On the other hand, if a company is doing poorly, a common stock can decrease in value. Simply put, common stock allows investors to share in a company’s success over time, which is why they can make great long-term investments.
2. PREFERRED STOCK
“Preferred stock is also known as preference stock. The word “Preferred” refers to the dividends paid by the corporation. Each year, the holders of the preferred stock are to receive their dividends before the common shareholders are to receive any dividend”.Preferred stockholders generally do not have voting rights, though they have a higher claim on assets & earnings that the common stockholders.
Preferred shares can be converted to a fixed number of common shares, but common shares don’t have this benefit.Like bonds, preferred stocks are rated by the major credit rating companies. The rating for preferred stocks is generally lower than for bonds because preferred dividends do not carry the same guarantees as interest payments from bonds & because preferred stock holders claims are junior to those of all creditors.
Some things you need to know about stocks:
a. P/E RATIO –
The price to earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its currents share price relative to its pre share earnings (EPS)…. P/E ratios are used by investors & analysts to determine the relative value of a company’s shares in an apple to apples comparison.The ratio is used for valuing companies & to find out whether they are overvalued or undervalued.Earnings are important when valuing company’s stock because investors want to know how profitable a company is & how profitable it will be in the future.
b. CHART –
Chart reading is the single most important investing skill you’ll ever learn. To understand why stock chart are so valuable. Chart tells you a whole story about stocks. The weekly chart helps you see longer term trends. And daily chart helps you spot specific buy & sell signals while daily price fluctuation perspective.
c. Dividend –
If you don’t have time watch the market every day, and you want your stocks to make money without that kind of attention, look for dividends. Dividends are like interest in a savings account. You get paid regardless of the stock price. Dividends of 6% or more are not unheard of in high quality stocks. Before purchasing a stock, look for the dividend rate. If you simply want to park money in the market, invest in stocks with a high dividend. (For more, see Why Dividends Matter.)
d. Taxes Can Take A Bite Out Of Your Profits –
The FANG stocks – Facebook FB +0%, Amazon.com AMZN +0%, Netflix NFLX +0% and Google GOOGL +0% (Alphabet) — had a great run in 2015, with returns ranging from 34% to 134%, but from a tax perspective any investor who bought last year and eyeing the exits wants them to keep climbing. That’s because the one-year mark is a line of demarcation for the tax man.
Selling stocks, you’ve held for less than a year triggers a short-term capital gain, taxed as ordinary income. That could mean kicking back anywhere from 25% to 39.6% to Uncle Sam. But hold those same stocks for at least 12 months and the tax rate drops to 15% for most tax brackets.
WHY TO INVEST IN IT
Investing in the stock is the only way most people have of building real wealth. Stock is just one of many potential places to invest your money. Investing in stock is often risky, which draw attention to huge gains & losses of some investors.
One of the primary benefits of investing in the stock market is the chance to grow your money. Over time, the stock market tends to rise in value, though the prices of individual stocks rise and fall daily. Investments in stable companies that are able to grow tend to make profits for investors. Likewise, investing in many different stocks will help build your wealth by leveraging growth in different sectors of the economy, resulting in a profit even if some of your individual stocks lose value.
Stocks are risky This means they don’t have a guaranteed return and sometimes lose money. However, the long-run trend of the stock market has been undeniably upward. Stocks have the highest return of any investment asset over the long term. According to the Federal Reserve, the stock market has grown by an average of more than 10 percent a year over the past 50 years. During this same period, government bonds only grew by 5 percent a year. If you can stomach the market swings, you will see the highest return on your money with the stock market.
Purchasing stocks of companies operating in different sectors as well as segments is possible, which helps in optimizing the asset-allocation and provides diversification.
Long bodies of candles shows strong buying & selling pressure. Bullish long candle indicates that buyers are more stronger than sellers and they are taking control of the market during this period of time. Conversely, a bearish long candle indicates that sellers are stronger than buyers & they are taking control of the market during this period of time.
